Predicting Texas Morels

Every year I tell myself, “Dude, I gotta start carrying a pH-meter, a soil moisture meter, and a soil thermometer. I’m really gonna figure out if we are going to have a good year or a bad year.”

But I don’t.

That is the way it goes. I just want to hunt the damn things, not write a thesis.  But the nagging need for science still goes on.

However, last week with all the rain, I noticed a nifty graph of the local Lake Travis water levels. I quickly thought of morels and spotted the trend.  Any good stat student would state “Correlation is not Causation”, which is emphasizing one should analyze the source data and effects on the data from other factors. But since morels popping up won’t cause rainfall, I’m pretty sure rainfall causes morels to pop up.

This graph shows the slow increase in lake levels (that means we got rain) for 2010 and 2015 which were both banner years. The other years sucked, but I think I didn’t try hard in 2012 due to how bad the drought was.

Lake travis water level

So notice how 2011 and 2013, and 2014 slowly tilt down. That means the lake level was dropping, which means we had no rain.  I also found no morels that year.

2010 and 2015 were humdingers with massive flushes. Those show lake levels slowly rising from modest rains.

Conclusion, your local lake level chart should give you an idea of how well the season will be.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Powered by and